Gotta play big to win big?
Isn't that the phrase? Not in Pokemon it isn't. Under Pokemon's new prize structuring found here: CLICK HERE
Under the new system Pokemon will now payout (with packs most likely from their newest set Break Point) to lower than usual finishers. Packs will now uncharacteristically be paid out to top 128. Graph A breaks down the payouts for each finishing group (specifically the masters division). Line 1 is what you will recieve if you placed in a specific tier (ex. Players finishing in T8 would recieve 54 Booster Packs). Line 2 is the total pack payout for that specific tier (ex. those finishing 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th, will split a total of 216 packs). Lines 3-4 are specifically what the payout percentage (based on the 2016 packs being given out in total to each person's placing and the placings all together). Example: Players finishing in T8 will split 10.71% of the total prize pool amoung its 4 other competitors or each will recieve 2.68% of the overall total prize pool.
According to the Pokemon.com link above (and with simple addition), 2016 booster packs will be given out to masters in total at each regionals (regardless of total attendance).
Graph A
So by my calculations (not shown, and based on prior event knowledge), an estimated 400 person regionals, a record of 5W-4L-0T (15points) will net you a top 128 seeding. A 5-4 record, you know, slightly better than a .500 season will net you payout. I personally feel that taking winnings from the top 8 and allocating it to the bottom T64 & T128 isn't good for the competitive nature. It indirectly discouages and de-incentivizes good players from doing their best. Why put in long hours of play testing and meticulous deck construction/meta gaming when I can coast and get a decent enough payout?
The only last incentive left (after the prize restructuring and cutting t4 trophies) is championship points and round 2 byes at nationals. I argue that even with championship points being untouched, and that the day 1 invite bar is so low I could not care less between 20-30 points. If I'm not winning/finishing top 8 at multiple regionals/nationals, I only need my 300 points and then I'm done for the season. I no longer have the incentive to attend, try hard, buy more product, or push the (meta) game to the limits without being properly rewarded for my efforts. I have already won my chance to play the best. I can push the game to the limits when it actually matters ... in August.
Another issue with the new structure is that regionals attedance can range from 150 to 500 masters division players. Example: Ontario Canada regionals versus St. Louis Regionals. Ontario Canada regionals has an expected turnout of less than 200 (based on last years attendance and current regional trends). Last year top 64 extended to records who were 4W-3L (12points). With the extension of prizes, Ontario Master players have a chance even with a negitive record to recieve payout support. Now take into consideration St. Louis regionals, last year who had an attedance of 360+ Master players (double the player base on Ontario). Top 128 there would roughly estimate a record of 5W-3L-1T (16points) [an above winning record there]. I'm not sure if I agree TPCI static (regardless of attedance) payouts now...
Now lets reflect: take a look at last years regionals payout. This was from Pokemon.com's Fall regionals information page: CLICK HERE
Graph B
By compairing the two regionals payouts, serious cuts were made to those finishing in the Top 4 and minor cuts to Top 8. The champion now (under new structure) wins the same amount as second place. What is this even? If you compare the payouts in any other tournament 2nd should never pays out to a 1:1. It would be like if you were on Jeopardy and you won $15,000 in final Jeopardy and the 2nd place opponent (regardless of his/her score) would also get $15,000 even though he/she was outplayed? But you won and you get the trophy right? You could completely 6-0 your opponent twice in the finals at Regionals this year. However, you're both going home with the same amount of prizes (minus 2nd place does not recieve a trophy). Where did your prize support go originally? It got spread to players in the lower Top 8, mostly into those with slightly above average records.
So what can Pokemon do to encourage players to play the best (like no one ever was)?
In theory you could follow in the footsteps of the largest collectable card game, Magic: The Gathering. They must be doing something right if they can draw in thousands of people for (what I feel and other players feel the Pokemon Regional equivalent) Grand Prix(s) (GP for short).
I located the payout structure for the upcoming 2016 GP(s). I then calculated it's percentage payouts per person versus its payout pool. Example: First place recieves $10,000 of its $21,200 (min. 3000+ players) static (independent of its attendance) total cash prize pool. I then proceeded to replicate the percentage payouts to emulate that of MTG into Pokemon's booster pack payouts. A full breakdown on MTG GP payouts can be found here:
CLICK HERE
Graph C
From Graph C above, you can see that the payouts between each placing is exponentially higher. 1st Place would (in pokemon packs) recieve 972 packs (slightly adjusted higher to get a number divisiable by 36, which is 27 boxes!) based on the MTG percentage payout. From there, payouts get much smaller where anyone finishing outside the top 8 not even recieving a full box. The MTG structure robs alot of the lower placings players of packs and puts a much higher weight (and pressure) on finishing 1st.
A loss in the finals means your winnings are cut by nearly 55% and even futher as you place lower. Records in day 2 top cut are so close (mainly lower T8 vs upper T16 as well as lower T16 vs upper T32) that something as close as 1 point (or even tie breakers) could cut your winnings in half. I don't necessarly agree with this drastic variance in winnings but is still to be considering when structuring.
Other competitive games have huge variances such as Super Smash Bros Melee / Super Smash 4 structure being a 60%/30%/10% payout. I did not include this since payout is based on TO entry fee, venue fees and overall attedance. Smash Bros and other competitive E-sports games have little luck to factor as skill is the main driver. Consistent players can continue to recieve these payouts over and over again. There are too many factors (when calculating payouts) to consider this scheme but I digress.
I continued to search for a more balanced payout structure... Then I came across professional poker...
I took the payout scheme from professional poker found here & implemented there structure for a 351-475 player tournament (similiar to a large Pokemon regionals attedance):
CLICK HERE
Again, I used the percentages to emulate a Pokemon payout structure. I had to restructure payouts as some of Top 8 was not divisable by 36 (as it has been in the past). I attempted to get as close to 2016 packs (total given for master division). It took a considerable amount of time to adjust percentages as Professional Poker is played on tables of 9's versus Pokemon standard tradition of 8's (So the numbers do not quite match the ones on the website).
Graph D
Call me a gambling addict or a guy who loves making spreadsheets or someone who has too much time on their hands(or all 3), but I feel professional poker structure is the way to go.
I feel that there is a balance in doing well. A loss in the finals doesn't cut your winnings in half (they are cut enough to feel it but you aren't burned by it). Payouts still get a decent amount (T64 receiving 10 packs is still a good day especially a typical T64 record is 6-3; an above average winning record). Missing cut isn't devistating when you only recieve 5 less packs behind your counterparts in 17-32nd places. Its not fun but you definitely do feel like you are at least going home with something.
When I finished top 64 at Ft Wayne and I went home with 15 packs and a T-Tar regionals mat, I was satisfied that my time, effort and hours testing was for something. It was not by any means easy where I could coast on skill alone to a 6-3 record. If didn't test or put hours into testing, I know I could coast into Top 128 seed with a mindless autopilot deck and get a disappointing 6 packs for 9 hours. I know my heart wouldn't have been in it to win it because of the lower payout (montetary and other reasons stated above).
I don't agree with your "everyone should get something" attitude but TPCI is going to do what it wants regardless of the competitive scene. I will most likely be trying at a bare minimum. No longer will I stress over deck picks and metagaming for hours on end to obtain a small pool of packs. The only drive I have left is to get 300 and finish.
Andrew Wamboldt of Charizard Lounge once told me "Once you have 300 points, its really going to come down to how well you do at [US] Nationals anyways whether you get a day 2 or not [or degree level of stipend(s)]."
Until then...
OR
(Now if I could ever just look directly in the camera...)
Hey everyone! Tyler T here & Owen (in Itallics text). I just got back from the Ohio City Mini-Marathon late on Monday night, and boy was it a great marathon. It was the last week of cities so I tried my best to earn some last-minute championship points, to which I did!
Bryan H and I left New York around 2 PM on Friday to head to Owen R's place in Ohio to stay with him for the marathon. After a fun night of pizza and play-testing, the three of us were ready for the first city in Massilon, OH. Owen was going to run M Mewtwo Y/Dark, Bryan was going to run Entei, and I was set on a winning deck list one of my friends Chris Hoag gave me, Toad/Regice/Zoroark. After a decent night's sleep (except for Owen, who wasn't able to get any shuteye), we were ready for our first city.
After getting to Massilon we analyzed who was there that we may have had to go up against. There were around 54 Masters which meant there were a total of 6 Swiss rounds, and before we knew it, the first round had started. I didn't do that great, as I had a lack of experience with the deck I was using and some of my match-ups weren't that great, resulting in me ending with a 2-4. Bryan had the same unfortunate day, coming in with a 1-5 record. Owen, however, ended with a 4-1-1 in Swiss and he made it into top 8, eventually making it into the finals and winning the city championship!
Owen's matchups for the day were as follows:
Round 1 against Houdoom EX/Bunnelby
I played against a typical Pokedad. Knew what he was doing but have the experience to take his game to the next level, average run of the mill player. I saw from posts the previous night (thursday) on the event Facebook page, many people were asking for Team Aqua Secret Base[s] which indicates 2 possible decks; Wailord EX or Houndoom EX Mill. The dad was playing Houdoom EX mill. I had played an experienced Houndoom EX mill player who viturally cut every cities he played it. I knew I had to steer into the skid. On a clutch judge (which I considered cutting at one point) helped me refill the deck enough so that my M Mewtwo Y with 4 Energies took out his last Houndoom with 2 Energies and Hard Charm.
1-0
Round 2 against Entei AOR/Charizard EX
So coming off the first win, my next opponent seemed like a well versed card player compared to the dad in round 1. I opened very well using battle compressor for 1 dark, 1 sycamore and 1 judge. I debated whether or not I should sycamore or judge. I opted to judge since I still had Hoopa and 1-2 Shaymins left in deck if I drew an ultra ball off judge. I was feeling checky and turned 1 judge'd my opponent into absolutely nothing. He spent the next 4 turns drawing and passing only playing 1 acro bike forfeiting a prof letter to take a charizard ex to not bench out. Game ended when a 6 Energy M Mewtwo Y (3 DCE) rolled through until its over.
2-0
Round 3 against Night March
Night March is my least favorite matchup with this deck since I play 5 non EX attackers (3 Yveltal & 2-2 Zoroark Line). The goal is to stream them all and take a Shaymin or 2 when convient. Problem is Zoroark only hits 100 with a bench of 3. A smart Night March player will not over commit since Zoroark is always threatening. My opponent did no such thing; I had to improvise with a Mewtwo EX. I threatened his bench Feebas with a Photon Wave. He only had Joltik and Shaymin in play so that Joltik would come up, he would be 10 shy. He had compressor in hand and tossed the last joltik in deck and I was now losing the prize trade. He still had Pumpkiboo and DCE in deck; My final turn judge could not prevent him from getting the last two pieces. LOSS.
2-1
Round 4 against Wobbuffett Bats
This matchup also super unfavorable. Mewtwo Y does not hit for weakness meaning it requires 4 energies to kill an empty 110HP wobbuffet. After my opponent missed crucial energy drops and being under parallel city for too long, he decided to focus Miltank FLF. Miltank was no problem for Zoroark to come up and trade 1 for 1 which won me the game
3-1
Round 5 against Seismitoad EX/Manectric EX/Empoleon BKT
This match was streamed so just watch the VOD.
Link: http://www.twitch.tv/kemony/v/35835968
Link: http://www.twitch.tv/kemony/v/35837521
4-1
Round 6 against Night March
I played against my friend who was 4-0-1. With that, I opted to ID even though it was a strong chance of missing. Two or Three 4-1-1s missed cut
4-1-1
Top 8 against YGZ
Finally back into top cut. Haven't been in since week 1 and this was the final week (8) of cities. Struggled so hard to get here. Played a slew of decks with minimal luck placing T16 (4-2 or a lucky 3-3) at every city weeks 2-7. Played an extremely close first game. Mistake was paralleling my opponent so I couldn't KO Shaymin EX with Zoroark. Game 2 she made a crucial misplay where she ultra ball'd her sycamore away and she threw the game away. Game 3 the luck turned for the worse for my opponent. Zorua open and passed. I had a near perfect setup where I Photon Wave the Zorua and had another Mewtwo ready, Mega in hand with another DCE + VS seeker (with lysandre/sycamore in discard). She tops Yveltal and Oblivion wing's a dark to Zoura. Lysandre Psychic Infinity. Yveltal EX comes down, O Wing again. Lysandre Psy Infinity again for 190 damage KO. O wing, pass. Shake hands.
Top 4 against Vileplume
First game was an extremely close game. Coming down to the wire. I got Turn 1 plume so not items most all the game. I knew if I played patiently I would prevail. Had to spend many turns waiting on Mega evolutions but I didn't need much more than a DCE to kill Vespiquen. Vespiquen struggled to 1HKO M Mewtwo so I was ahead in prize trade. Game 2 came down to a final turn. I had two choice to win game. My opponent had 1 card left in deck and a hand of 10, I could Lysandre stall the Vileplume with no float and hope he doesn't play a third AZ or Sycamore to hit a DCE where Zoroark can stepin to take last Vespiquen Kill to deny him the last prize. I rolled a die on the table because I didn't know what to decide. I told myself heads would be Lysandre and tails would be Sycamore. It rolled tails but I knew in my heart sycamore was wrong so I lysandre stalled the plume and he then shook my hand. He did not play a third AZ and his fourth DCE was unfortunately prized.
Finals against Seismitoad/Manectric/Empoleon [rematch]
All you need to know is that I played Seismitoad/Manectric/Empoleon again. The full final VOD can be found here:
Link: SOON
We celebrated that night, as this was Owen's first City win of the season, putting him at a total of 174 CP. We decided to test some more that night, and Owen planned on running the same deck again the next day. Bryan was deciding between Bunnelby Mill, Houndoom/Bunnelby Mill, and M Houndoom/Bats, ultimately settling on the latter. I decided to test and run the next day with M Manectric/Raikou. After some more testing, we settled in for the night.
The next city we went to was in Alliance, OH. As were finished writing down are decklists, Bryan went to the bathroom and when he came back, told us that there were a group of at least 5 playing YZG. This of course scared me a little, as I didn't like that matchup with M Manectric/Raikou. Bryan also became hesitant on his deck choice. He then switched his deck to Manectric/Bats, a winning list provided by one of our friends Nick Chimento from NY. I couldn't decide, so at the very last minute I jotted down a new decklist, running the exact same list as Bryan. I barely finished it in time, and had one of the judges laugh at how terrible my handwriting was when I turned it in (it is very bad). After Swiss matches had ended, Bryan came in 10th with a 4-2 record, Owen squeaked in at 8th with a 4-1-1 record, and I managed to get in at 7th with a 4-1-1 record as well. Owen unfortunately lost his top 8 match to Toad/Tina/Bats. I was fortunate enough to win my top 8, and eventually win the entire event. Team Toxic had another city win under it's belt. Here is what my matchups looked like during the day:
Round 1 against M Glalie/Regice:
I never actually tested this matchup, and at face value, the deck doesn't seem super-competitive. But against Manectric/Bats, it was a bit tricky. Once he had a M Glalie going I had to make sure I didn't put 10 damage counters on it otherwise I was in for a world of hurt. I took down that goliath, but before I knew it another one was up and running. Luckily, I was able to squeeze out a win. With the first round being kind of rocky, I didn't have too much confidence in the rest of the day.
1-0-0
Round 2 against Giratina/Toad:
I didn't test this matchup that much either, but I definitely knew what was in store for me heading into the round. Unfortunately, he got the turn 1 Head Ringer on my active Manectric. After a first turn of whiffing a supporter, it was all downhill from there. He got off two crushing hammers a couple of turns later, and afterwards I scooped very early to him. I already knew that I was too behind, so decided to cut my losses and give him the win.
1-1-0
Round 3 against M Mewtwo Y/Dark:
This matchup I had tested the night before, and I knew it pretty well. I could hit for weakness with bats against the Mewtwos, and against the Yveltals with Manectric. I was able to consistently set up my bats and set up knockouts, eventually getting a double knockout on two Mewtwos. After that he scooped as he was way too far behind.
2-1-0
Round 4 against Manectric/Bats(Bryan):
The funny thing is, Bryan and I have a tendency to almost-always face each other in tournaments, and this one was no different. I feel like I may have jinxed it, as after we both had the same record after round 3, I pointed out there's a good chance we could face each other. Bryan managed to get the flip and go first. Right then and there I knew if he got at least two bats down I'd be in for some trouble. He managed to get 3 bats down, and put 2 muscle bands on each of his Manectrics, preventing me from Head Ringer-ing him. My turn 1 wasn't that strong, as I missed the muscle band on my active Manectric. After I attacked for turn, he dug for a Head Ringer and stuck it on my Manectric. I didn't have much faith after that, but I still kept going. Luckily I was able to swing the game around near the last third of the round and took the lead, eventually getting the lysandre for a benched Shaymin EX for game. This meant that Bryan had effectively been knocked out of a chance of getting top 8. Sorry bud!
3-1-0
Round 5 against Yveltal/Bats/Vespiquen:
I heard about this deck doing well in certain areas, but I wasn't too familiar with it. I also had no testing against it. I called the flip correctly and was able to get 3 bats down turn 1. My opponent started Yveltal and benched a Combee, another Yveltal, and a Shaymin EX after Set-Up. He forewent his entire bat line with three Battle Compressors, as he felt he didn't need them against me. Once he attacked for turn, I was able to set up for two knockouts that turn, thus effectively preventing him from setting up a Vespiquen and eventually running him through.
4-1-0
Round 6 against Giratina/Toad/Bats:
I got paired against Tyler Bellay, who would end up first seed after Swiss rounds were over. We both ID'd to secure our placements in top 8. Afterwards, I heard that one 4-1-1 might not make it. This of course worried me, as my round one opponent went 1-5 drop. Fortunately enough, I had good resistance elsewhere, and was able to get the 7th seed in top 8.
4-1-1
Top 8 against Turbo Giratina:
I was fairly confident in this matchup, as there was no Seismitoad for him to abuse. He went first and was able to get two fire energies on his benched Giratina EX. I was able to place down a couple bats and attach a Muscle Band onto my active Manectric. Eventually, after getting a few lucky flips on Super Scoop Ups, I was able to steamroll him the first game. During the second game, however, I got my just desserts. He was able to get everything set up by his first turn attacking and I eventually got a little behind. A Lysandre for a benched Shaymin EX and being hit with a Muscle Banded Giratina put that game to a close. It was onto game three. I decided to go first, even though I was aware it was very possible for him to get a turn-1 KO on a Manectric EX because I wanted to set up as many bats as possible. The entire game went to time before there were any knockouts. And after the +3 was over, we still had to continue, as nobody had taken a knockout yet. I was able to hit an active Giratina EX with an Assault Laser for 140 damage. He switched to a fresh Tina and attacked. I was out of Lysandres and VS Seekers, so I knew my only choice was to get a Crobat to snipe his damaged Giratina. I was too afraid to put down more bats as he could have easily KO'd them, so this was my only option. I eventually was able to find a Sycamore and draw into 2 energy, effectively giving me the win.
5-1-1
Top 4 against Nightmarch/Milotic:
I knew this deck like the back of my hand, as I had tested in the entire city season, so I knew what was in store for me. He went first and I started lone Shaymin EX, much to my dismay. He was able to get a couple Battle Compressors off and set down a Dimension Valley. I ran no counter-stadium, so that D Valley was there for good. I was able to get the win the first game, relying on my bat damage to help me. He decided to go second game 2, which I thought was interesting. He eventually steamrolled me game 2, as I had whiffed a supporter one turn and wasn't able to set up enough bats. I went first during game 3, and set up 3 bats. After a very close match, I was able to get the win, putting me into the finals.
6-1-1
Finals against Nightmarch/Milotic:
After a stressful top 4 match against Nightmarch/Milotic, I had to once again face it. Luckily, I won the flip and put down two bats after starting with one. I was careful this time around to not put down any EXs until my second turn. Because of this, I was able to out-trade him with my bat damage and attacks. One of my attacks was killing an active Joltik with a muscle banded Golbat for free because of his Dimension Valley. He went first during game 2, but started lone Feebas. He eventually scooped after his second turn because he had an unworkable hand, thus giving me the win.
7-1-1
I had done it! Winning my second city during this season was a big personal accomplishment for me.After getting back to Owen's, we decided to celebrate once again that night with a not-so-friendly game of Mario Party. Afterwards with some playtesting we decided it was Bryan's turn to win a city. All three of us settled on running the deck that Owen ran the first day of the marathon, M Mewtwo Y/Dark. We all got a decent amount of sleep that night, and left that morning to Akron, OH with our heads held high.
Despite our confidence, we all ended up flaking and didn't make top 8. Our city runs for this season had come to a close, and despite Bryan being not-so-happy with his city run, Owen and I were happy with ours. Owen and I finished this season's city run with 194 CP and 174 CP, respectively.
http://www.twitch.tv/kemony/v/36209801
Owen commentary for Top 8 and Top 4:
3:50:ish is Top 8.
4:51:00 is Top 4.
Finals is really lame not worth watching and commentary isn't good.
After saying goodbye to Owen and the rest of our friends, Bryan and I headed back to NY in the oncoming snowstorm. It was now time to lay our decks to rest until Spring Regionals rolled by~
-Tyler (Main)
-Owen (Secondary)
